Friday, April 12, 2019

NBA PLAYOFFS: FIRST ROUND PREVIEW

NBA PLAYOFFS: FIRST ROUND PREVIEW


EASTERN CONFERENCE



#1 MILWAUKEE (60-22)
#8 DETROIT (41-41)

SEASON SERIES: MIL (4-0)


Head coach Mike Budenholzer in his first stint with the Milwaukee Bucks has turned the Bucks from a (44) win team a season ago, to a (60) win team, #1 in the East, and the best record in the entire NBA. Budenholzer definitely deserves Coach of the Year, however his star small forward is surely worthy of his first MVP trophy. Giannis Antetokoumpo (27.7 ppg / 12.5 rpg / 5.9 apg / 1.5 bpg) while shooting (57%) from the field this season improved in points, rebounding, assist and FG percentage and had his best season as a pro by far this season. Greek has done it all on both ends of the floor for the top team in the East. He earned top nods for Eastern All Star ballot an alongside Khris Middleton (18.3 ppg / 6.0 rpg) who earned his first trip to the game an Eric Bledsoe (15.5 ppg / 5.5 apg); Milwaukee has a formidable solid core of players and can run with the best of them.


Detroit has scrapped their way into the playoffs winning their last two games after losing (8 of 11) games before then. Dwayne Casey a year from winning coach of the year in (2017-18) and leading Toronto to another postseason trip has the daunting task of leading this Pistons team versus a legit Finals contender in Milwaukee. All Star forward Blake Griffin in his first full season with Detroit after being traded midseason last year averaged career highs in points (24.5 ppg) and has been the Pistons most consistent player all season. Being said after Griffin the water runs dry for offensive production. Andre Drummond the longest tenure Piston on the team posted another double-double season (17.3 ppg / 15.6 rpg), leading the NBA in rebounding. 

The Pistons enter the postseason for the first time since (2015-16) and just the second time in the past 10 years. While the Bucks are in their 3rd consecutive playoff appearance however; this is the most potent they have looked ever headed in. #1 scoring team (118.1 ppg) not to mention their (104.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) which ranks first amongst defensive rating. The Bucks have been hit by the injury bug of late. However, Nikola Mirotic (thumb) and Tony Snell (ankle) should be ready come game 1. (2016-17) Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon (foot) is still out indefinitely. Brogdon was averaging (50% - FG / 40% - 3PT / 90% - FT). Detroit lacks much bench unlike Milwaukee who can go (8-10) man deep. Brook Lopez ability to stretch the floor with his ability to make threes (36.5 % - 3PT) will keep Drummond and Griffin from being as dominant force in the rebounding category like they have been. Dragging them away from the basket should keep the lane clear for takeoff for Greek. While Blake Griffin needs to get touches early an often in their pick and roll game and Detroit does not get into a shooting match that they can ill afford to lose. As well as the Bucks ability to get points off fast breaks will put pressure to score on a lackluster offense. Milwaukee won the season series by an average of (14.7 ppg). Bucks win their first payoff series since 01. MILWAUKEE SWEEPS


#4 BOSTON (48-33)
#5 INDIANA (47-34)

SEASON SERIES: BOS (3-1)


With any relationship whether dating or on a team setting you need, chemistry. Something this year's Boston Celtics has surely lacked the majority of the season. The Boston Celtics winners of (4 of 5) including twice over the past two weeks to their opponent the Indiana Pacers, battled their way back into at least home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. Boston flipped flopped with Indiana in the standings down the final stretch of the NBA regular season. Moods and egos also flipped flopped in the locker room apparently for Brad Stevens bunch. Stevens has the C's in their 5th consecutive playoff appearance in a season where it seemed they were a lock for the Finals coming out of the East, they find themselves (7) wins less than last year while hoping issues on and off the court are fixed.


Nate McMillian seems to be always in the coach of the year conversation. After losing All Star guard an arguably their best player Victor Oladipo (18.8 ppg) on January 28th for the remainder of the season; McMillian and the Pacers did not quit. After a hot streak once Oladipo went down headed to the All Star break, a flourish of losses that cost them home court now has Indiana with the 5 seed in the East. Ranking 1st defensively only allowing (104.7 ppg), their defensive production has decreased. Center Myles Turner leads the NBA in blocks with (2.7) per game while Bojan Bogdanovic (18 ppg / 49% FG / 42% 3PT) has been trying to carry the team offensively. Alongside savvy veteran point guard Darren Collison, the Pacers will be looking to up the intensity on that side of the ball.

Especially going against the likes of Kyrie Irving (23.8 ppg / 6.9 apg / 48% FG), who just lit them up for 30 points a couple games ago. Marcus Morris has played well vs the Pacers this season, however Brad Stevens has went to a bigger lineup with Aron Baynes starting alongside Al Horford. The lineup change seems to be working as Baynes has led the team in rebounding (3 of the last 6) games as the Celtics have won (4 of 5) games. Marcus Smart is out at least through the first (2) rounds with a torn oblique. Smart is a vital piece in what they do defensively, hopefully Jaylen Brown will fill that void.  Hayward, Horford, and Irving have all missed at least (10) or more games as durability continues to be a factor for Boston. However, Gordon Hayward is finding is form once more, Kyrie has played well as the Celtics average (26) assists per game an are 4th in steals with (8.6). Besides their first matchup; a (102-101) loss at the expense of Victor Oladipo, the Pacers have not been much of competition for Boston. Having someone like Oladipo not in late game situations could prove to be the difference with a player like Kyrie caliber on the other side. Indiana can definitely steal a game or two, but that is about it. BOSTON IN 6


#2 TORONTO (58-24)
#7 ORLANDO (42-40)

SEASON SERIES: TIED (2-2)


The Toronto Raptors seem poised for a deep postseason run and not to be knocked out early this season. One; the LBJ factor. With LeBron James in the western conference now, the road to the Finals for the Raptors became a step easier. Two; first year head coach Nick Nurse has Toronto playing excellent basketball on both ends of the floor. They rank top 5 in both offense and defense efficiency. Three; Kawhi Leonard trade. Kawhi Leonard (26.6 ppg / 49% FG) was traded along with Danny Green (10.3 ppg / 45% 3PT) have improved Toronto across the board. No LeBron helped the Raptors finish with (58) wins, one shy of last years record setting mark. Being said they won (58) games while only having Leonard available for (60) games this season. Another huge reason for their success was the emergence of Paschal Siakham. Siakham (16.9 ppg / 6.9 rpg / 54% FG) is a drastic improvement from a season ago (7.3 ppg / 4.5 rpg / 50% FG) and seems to be frontrunner for Most Improved Player.


The Orlando Magic have not tasted the playoffs since 2012. Head coach Steve Clifford bought over that tough defense mentality to Florida as the Magic only allow (106.6 ppg), 5th in the NBA. Orlando winners of (9 of 11) and have been on tear since February. Nikola Vucevic earned All Star honors this season posting (20.8 ppg / 12.2 rpg / 51% FG) has been the catalyst leading the charge into the playoffs. Vucevic reliable as they get played in (80) games this season. Aaron Gordon has played better this season averaging (16 ppg / 7.4 rpg) while Evan Fournier (15.1 ppg) have played clutch all season long. Orlando split the series with Toronto however the playoffs are a different animal.

A different animal where experience will matter. DJ Augustine (31) is the oldest player on the Magic's roster. He, Fournier, and Vucevic are the only Magic players with any playoff experience. While Toronto (Kawhi, Ibaka, Danny Green, Lowry, and Gasol) have a multitude of postseason games an action under their belt. Trading for Marc Gasol has paid dividends on both sides of the ball and Jeremy Lin adds depth behind Fred VanFleet and the point guard position. Toronto has one of the deepest benches in the NBA with length, speed an athleticism. Reason why they were one of the top teams in transition this season. Counter that with the Magic having on the top tier transition defenses, some could say they see why they may have stole (2) games from Toronto this season. The Raptors have all the pieces for a deep run if they can stay healthy, including the best player on the floor in this series, Kawhi Leonard. Experience matters here. TORONTO IN 5


#3 PHILADELPHIA (51-31)
#6 BROOKLYN 

SEASON SERIES: TIED (2-2)


Philadelphia has won (50) games in consecutive seasons for the first time since the mid (1980s) and for some reason they seem to be hobbling into the playoffs. Even with one of the leagues dominant starting lineups on "paper" but have yet to look as dominant on the court all together. Joel Embiid (knee) will be out at least through the weekend according to most reports. Embiid (27.5 ppg / 13.6 rpg) led the team in both categories ranking in 4th and 2nd respectively in points and rebounding in the entire league. Acquiring Jimmy Butler (18.2 ppg) earlier in the season followed by Tobais Harris (18.2 ppg) and bringing back JJ Redick (18.1 ppg / 39% 3PT) has solidified a prominent starting 5 in Philly. Ben Simmons became an All Star in year two averaging (16.9 ppg / 7.7 apg / 8.8 rpg). 


Head coach Kenny Atkinson slowly but surely have propelled the Brooklyn Nets into the playoffs. Following (20 and 28) win seasons, the Nets won (42) games in route to a 6 seed and their first playoff berth since (2014-15). Fourth year player and now  All Star D'Angelo Russell (21.1 ppg / 7.0 apg) has been the focal point on a young and talented roster. Majority of their main core of talent is under (25) years of age except NBA Three Point Contest winner Joe Harris (27). Harris is shooting (47% - 3PT). Spencer Dinwiddie (16.8 ppg) compliments Russell nicely in the backcourt. They can be mismatch and disadvantage if taken lightly. Their ability to create their own shot off the dribble and isolation will be needed to hang with the Sixers. Center Jarrett Allen who is not afraid to make a poster or be on the other end of one with his signature blocks almost is averaging a double-double with (10.9 ppg / 8.4 rpg).

The Sixers have a different lineup this playoffs around. The likes of the role players a season ago are replaced but can they ignite the difference for the Sixers this time around? Knowing their role with be vital for Butler and Harris contributing to their success long term. Embiid has missed (18) games this year where Philly is (8-10) in those games. He definitely is a difference maker when he is on the floor. However with Embiid out of the lineup, Philadelphia may be able to spread the floor more and open up driving lanes that will make life more accessible for Ben Simmons on the offensive end to get his wings and shooters going. Defensively because Embiid has not played a lot, fatigue can be a factor. Brooklyn is young and have excellent guards that can play both ways. Finding ways to exploit some defensive woes will be beneficial for creating easy buckets on the offensive end. However, Brooklyn themselves give up (112 ppg) which does not bode well with a Sixers team in the top 5 scoring. PHIILY IN 5.


 WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 GOLDEN STATE (57-25)
#8 LA CLIPPERS (48-34)

SEASON SERIES: GSW (3-1)


Golden State has suffered some uncharacteristic losses, unscripted press conferences, with some uncooperative players and it is still very unlikely they will get knocked off the crown in the western conference this season. As the Warriors hunt for an exclusive 3-peat as World Champions in the midst of free agency rumors and more, the Warriors are once again the team to beat in the association. Their (57) wins are the least they have won during the regular season in the Steve Kerr era however they still sit 2nd in points per game (117.7) and 1st in offensive rating per 100 possessions. Golden State shares the ball like nobody else with almost (30) assist per game which ranks 1st in the NBA. Kevin Durant (26.0 ppg), Steph Curry (27.3 ppg) and Klay Thompson (21.5 ppg) all give you a clear understanding that if one player is off, you have two more than can get you buckets. 


For Doc Rivers and the Los Angeles Clippers, they know this will be no easy first round outing for his team. The Clippers were projected to win around (33) games or so this season and clearly knocked that out the park posting a (48-34) record. Even after dealing Tobais Harris to Philly, the Clippers kept on winning games. Proven 6th man and vet Lou Williams (20.0 ppg) and Danilo Gallinari (19.8 ppg / 46% FG) lead the way for LAC. Williams has proved to be the ultimate floor general when late. As well as the defense and court awareness of Patrick Beverley, the Clippers are not going to go down lightly. 

The Clippers resembles their head coach, Doc Rivers, who is a competitor full and through. Montrezl Harrell (16.6 ppg / 6.5 rpg) have been a huge part of the Los Angeles success as well. A lot of unselfish players who are willing to get down and dirty will make things extra physical for GSW. Something they do not mind as they have been one of the best defensive teams since the All-Star break as well as winners of (6 of their last 7) games. That tough mentality defense spurred off their core Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green, and now Boogie Cousins. Cousins brings that added toughness to the Warriors however down the line could be a liability if he cannot defend in the open space. In (30) games of action, Cousins has averaged (16.3 ppg / 8.2 rpg / 48% FG). LAC gets to the free throw line more than any team in the NBA. Creating opportunities for easy points at the chariot stripe is a must. That will also hopefully get GSW into foul trouble which could force Kerr to rely on other players. Pat Beverley will try to frustrate a patience Steph Curry off his game and if the Clippers can hit open shots, they may win one game at Staples. GOLDEN STATE IN 5

#4 HOUSTON (53-29)
#5 UTAH (50-32)

SEASON SERIES: TIED (2-2)


The Houston Rockets know it is now or never in trying to take down the Golden State Warriors. James Harden with another historic year leading the league in scoring (36.1 ppg) which was the most a player has averaged for a season since Michael Jordan. Harden one of the most prolific scorers this side of the last decade has seen continues to dazzle nightly. (36.1 ppg / 7.5 apg / 6.6 rpg / 2.0 spg). Trying to defend yet slow him down is one thing, because actually stopping him seems to be nowhere in sight; unless your Manu Ginobli. As the continue to break records for 3-PT attempts and made; they have to figure out how to not get exited out of the playoffs before reaching the NBA Finals. Chris Paul (15.6 ppg / 8.2 apg) seems to be healthy, however the 9x All Star has only played just (58) regular season games in back to back seasons. With CP3 battling injuries all season, Harden carried the Rockets literally on his back. A stretch of (31) consecutive games with at least (30) or more points, nine games this season scoring at least (50) points, and the (2,700) points, (500) assists, (500) rebounds club in one season. All records either broke or shared by the likes of Wilt, Kobe, and MJ. Enough said.


The Utah Jazz have been plagued by the injury bug all season between starters and reserves this entire year. Somehow, someway, Quinn Snyder squad found a way to win (50) games for the second time in three seasons. Utah led by their 4th ranked defense and leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert (15.9 ppg / 12.9 rpg/ 2.3 bpg). Gobert shoots (66.9% FG) from the field which is the best in all of the NBA. Second year star Donovan Mitchell continues to shine (23.8 ppg) while Joe Ingles shooting (39% 3PT) which leads the team. When Ingles is hot, Houston has seen the outcome, but Ingles also can go cold and leave the Jazz scrambling for answers. Utah has depth, the problem is they all have been injured, missed time, or not available. One body versus Harden isn't going to get it done. A collective defensive presence will be needed for 48 minutes per contest if Utah looks to continue playing this postseason. Being discipline on defense will be key.

While only the Rockets have had a better record post All Star break than the Utah Jazz. Both teams come in (8-2) in their last 10 games looking to keep their hot streaks going. Streaky is what these teams are, as Houston can get hot from three and never look back, while Utah has a stifling defense and can get opponents out of their rhythm. A clear positive for Jazz fans because if any player can get into a rhythm it is James Harden. The accolades are their, just not any hardware. None for him, CP3, and Mike D'Antoni. Houston bet not underestimate the Jazz by trying to look ahead to a potential matchup with GSW. Derrick Favors (11.8 ppg / 7.8 rpg / 58% FG) has been another key contributor to the Jazz success. He and Gobert bring versatility to the low post and a defensive presence that has the duo as two of the best rim protectors in the game. Keeping Harden out of the paint off dribble penetration as well as Chris Paul's nifty ways of creating space out of nothing is what I will be watching for. Utah able to clog the lane without fouling, they could be in for a series. If Houston is getting off 3s off dribble penetration and getting to the free throw line.... HOUSTON IN 6

#2 DENVER (54-28)
#7 SAN ANTONIO (48-34)

SEASON SERIES: TIED (2-2)


The last time the Denver Nuggets won (50) games, they won (57) in the (2012-13) NBA season. That ended the George Karl tenure in the Mile High. 6 years later and 4 seasons in, Mike Malone has the Nuggets back in the postseason. A game away from the playoffs a year ago, Denver who led the western conference for the majority of the season made sure they would not be left out this year. A #2 seed with a real chance at a western conference finals appearance which they have not done since Melo was a Nugget. Difference is these Nuggets can go about 10 deep off the bench with at least (7) players averaging double-digits in scoring. Led by Nikola Jokic (20.1 ppg / 10.8 rpg / 7.3 apg / 51% FG). The Joker has done it all for the Nuggets. His rebounding alone has contributed to a vast number of second chance points as they average about (11.9) offensive boards a game. Their backcourt consists of Jamal Murray ,Gary Harris , and Will Barton. All three can find their own shot, but all three have been injured and missed time at some point during the season. 



A 7 seed for the San Antonio Spurs definitely show that this is not your classic and usual Spurs team. After losing Dejounte Murray preseason due to injury, the midst of the Kawhi Leonard trade demands and fiasco, Gregg Popovich has the Spurs in the playoffs for the 22nd consecutive season. Unprecedent amongst professional sports, but the exemplifies the standard of the Spurs. The trade that many did not want to see happen. San Antonio acquired a solid piece in Demar DeRozan. DeRozan has had one of his best statistical seasons thus far. Averaging (21.2 ppg / 6.2 apg / 6.0 rpg) he has been asked to play roles within the system he wasn't accustomed to but made it work. LaMarcus Aldridge (21.3 ppg / 9.2 rpg / 51% FG) played more games than he has in almost 8 seasons. A healthy Aldridge headed to postseason play is a good sign for Pop and company. Rudy Gay has been tremendous all season long while role players such as Bryn Forbes, Derrick White, and Patty Mills have helped San Antonio secure another postseason berth.

San Antonio is a predominantly mid range shooting team. One of the best led by Aldridge with the mid range to elbow and down game he plays. The Spurs are (37-10) when LaMarcus scores at least (20) or more points. Individual battles between he and Paul Millsap will be a huge piece in whether they move on or not. Aldridge has the edge in the paint vs Millsap. Millsap brings about the most postseason success to a Denver team looking for an identity. Missing out of the playoffs last year has this team fueled for a run. The altitude in the Mile High gives the Nuggets a unique home court advantage. Popovich comes in full of knowledge in comparison to Malone for Denver. Denver bench will need to be ready to take their talents to the next level. Slowing down DeRozan and Aldridge who have both been proven winners in the playoffs won't be easy. Derrick White will have the task of keeping up with Nuggets Jamal Murray. A chess match within the matchup for key individual performances will dictate the outcome of this series. Can DeRozan rise to the occasion in a new city? San Antonio one of the worst road teams i the playoffs. Denver was (34-7) at home. DENVER IN 7

#3 PORTLAND (53-29)
#6 OKLAHOMA CITY (49-33)

SEASON SERIES: OKC (4-0)

CJ McCollum returns from a (knee) injury as Jusuf Nurkic is nursing a leg injury which has him out the remainder of the season. McCollum returns just in time for Blazers to host another playoff series that they do not hope resembles last seasons debacle. Portland was swept by the Pelicans last season in which was a shock to the NBA world. A redemption factor at least owed to the fans in the great northwest is what the Blazers must endure. Not going be easy with a walking triple double coming to town. Blazers Damian Lillard has plated some of his best games against OKC this season. Lillard (25.8 ppg / 6.9 apg) has done everything he can to give Portland the best chances at winning. Portland did acquire Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter midseason to help with depth. Not a lot of scoring outside of Lillard and McCollum (21.0 ppg), especially with Nurkic out of the lineup. Not much depth on the bench so Kanter and Hood will have to step up big alongside Al-Farouq Aminu, Mo Harkless, and Evan Turner. 


Know your role and play it well. That needs to be the motto for the OKC Thunder moving forward. When perennial All Star Russell Westbrook (22.9 ppg / 11.1 rpg / 10.7 apg) he is a force to be reckon with. The Thunder earned their way into the 6 seed. Avoiding some pivotal matchups early, in hopes of meeting GSW in the WCF. Paul George has been a proven commodity all season. Averaging (28 ppg / 8.2 rpg / 2.2 spg) His (2.2) steals per game leads the NBA. He has been doing it on both ends of the court all season. Jermai Grant is shooting a career high from (3PT). Steven Adams ranks top 5 in (59% -FG) field goal percentage while almost averaging a double-double. While the addition of Dennis Schroder (15.5 ppg) has given OKC the depth they need for a playoff run. Do I trust Billy Donovan as a head coach? No. However, this version of OKC I believe if they stay disciplined, can truly make some noise.

No Nurkic anchoring that center position. A battle between two good friends with Adams and Kanter should be in store. Adams and the Thunder lead the league in offensive rebounding and 2nd in total rebounding. Portland cannot allow second chance opportunities for an OKC team that is very opportunistic. Portland will have chances to score ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency. Where as the case for OKC ranking 4th in defensive efficiency. Westbrook and Lillard both strive off the pick and roll game. Lillard missing Nurkic in the grand scheme of things is a huge loss for the Blazers. With OKC ability to turn defense into offense and the way they clean up in an around the basket will be too much for Portland to overcome being shorthanded. Kanter has some big shoes to fill in the absence of Nurkic. While the combo of PG-13/RUSS will be more dynamic and efficient than DAME/MCCOLLUM. The Blazers and head coach Terry Stotts have only made it out the first round series twice in his now 6th season in the playoffs with Portland. I believe that stat will remain the same. THUNDER IN 5

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