Thursday, September 5, 2019

WEEK 1: Around the NFL: Predictions, Analysis, Fantasy




Folks, the wait is over. The 2019 NFL season is upon us. Each week I will highlight certain players to watch out for on your fantasy. Go over spreads and game analysis. As well as make my weekly predictions.

WEEK 1


Green Bay @ Chicago (-3) (46.5)
NFL oldest rivalry kicks off the NFL 100th season. Aaron Rodgers and new head coach Matt LeFluer look to get the Packers back in the playoffs after missing the last 2 seasons. The Bears are making sure they have their kicker problem solved. More so, how will Trubisky fare this season in year 2 with Matt Nagy? We know Chicago has the defense but how far they will go will be dependent on Trubisky.

Bears fans will quickly realize Trubisky not it for QB...

Give me the Packers straight up
PACKERS 28 BEARS 27




LA Rams @ Carolina (+2.5) (50)
The Rams know if they aim to reach back to back Super Bowl appearances the health of Todd Gurley is a must. QB Jared Goff after linking with offensive guru Sean McVay earned himself a hefty payday. Now he alongside weapons on both sides of the ball poised for another run. Carolina with their own health concerns with their star QB Cam Newton. The former MVP dealing with shoulder issues, as well as lack of depth at wide out. CMC should be in store for a terrific season. Too much Rams on both sides of the ball.

Too much Donald, not enough Cam...
Give me the Rams (+2.5) and the over

LA RAMS 34 PANTHERS 24



Atlanta @ Minnesota (-4) (47.5)
Kirk Cousins looking to redeem himself after a decent season but no what Vikings fans were hoping for coming off a guaranteed contract that was overly priced. Cousins who seems to come up short in the big games has no excuses. A healthy Dalvin Cook. Renewed defense. Two (1,000) yard receivers, the time is now. That could be said for the Falcons too. So much talent and the window closing. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones knows their time for a SB is now. A healthy defense and reconstructed offensive line hoping for better results for both teams. Who QB I trust more? Neither but I'll take Ryan over Cousins.

A Matt Bryant FG to win it...
Give me the over
FALCONS 30 VIKINGS 27



Washington @ Philadelphia (-10) (45.5)
Carson Wentz understands that this Eagles team has always been his team its just making sure the world knows. Coming back off injury plague season, the Eagles are yet again favorites in the NFC and are stacked on both sides of the ball. Especially in the trenches on both offensive and defensive lines, Philly is tough. The Redskins have several QB's injured and getting over the injury bug will be a season long process. Some added depth on the backend of the defense. Questions of not just accountability from the QB position but as well as for position players leaves no room for optimism.

Wentz and Philly pull away late....
Give me the Eagles (-10) and over

REDSKINS 17 EAGLES 34



Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3) (41)
Both Josh Allen and Sam Darnold come into their sophomore season in the same division, last season both drafted in the top 10 of the 2018 NFL Draft. Expectations for both QB's seemingly rising. Allen losing his longtime running back Shady McCoy while Darnold added a pro bowler in LeVeon Bell. Both teams went out an added help to their defensive fronts through the draft and free agency. I like Adam Gase/Sam Darnold and what flashes Bell still have to take this win in a close one.

Heavy dose of Bell gives Jets fans hope for 2019...
Give me the Jets (-3)
BILLS 20 JETS 27



Baltimore @ Miami (+7) (37.5)
Lamar Jackson finished (6-2) as a starter helping the Ravens win the division and a playoff appearance. Adding Mark Ingram should bolster a rushing attack like no other. Few pieces gone off defense (addition by subtraction). However the Dolphins just did a bunch of (subtracting). Getting rid of players and adding draft capital; tank is not the word in Miami. Fitzpatrick should not be either as he will get the nod to start week 1. Depleted offense and defense sounds like instant disaster.

Jackson/Ingram combo run all over Phins…
Give me the over 
RAVENS 31 DOLPHINS 13



Kansas City @ Jacksonville (+3.5) (52)
Patrick Mahomes racked up (50) passing touchdowns on his way to NFL MVP honors a season ago. His Chiefs team is loaded, adding more speed and pure offensive talent around the young QB. While on defense replaced some age with youth and seem to be prime to get back to the AFC title game. The Jaguars left the Blake Bortles era and now welcome the Nick Foles era. The 2017 SB MVP now leading a new team with a solid offensive line and if production from their run game can get established will be a good season. Frank Clark huge addition. Lack of playmakers in the receiving core is suspect. Jags defense is tenacious just a bit to much KC in the end.

Pass friendly Mahomes and co. get it done late in Duvall...
CHIEFS 31 JAGUARS 27



Tennessee @ Cleveland (-5.5) (45.5)
Maybe the Browns biggest home opener since they became the Browns again just a decade ago. Reinforcing that defense with the studs they added and drafted while trading for OBJ has the Browns on paper looking like a legit playoff contender. Marcus Mariota time is running short. Injury plagued his entire career; Tennessee will look to a strong run game and solid defense in 2019. Cleveland will have their ears pinned to get on the field for the first time as they are this new look team.

Look for an explosive Browns offense in week 1...
Give me the Browns (-5.5)
TITANS 21 BROWNS 30



Indianapolis @ LA Chargers (-6.5) (44.5)
The Colts 2019 season wasn't supposed to start with franchise QB Andrew Luck retiring, but this is where we are. Showing faith in backup QB Jacoby Brissett, the Colts locked him in for the nest 2 seasons. A rebuilt offensive line should help Jacoby who has started for the Colts before just not in Frank Reich offense. The Chargers will be missing all pro safety Derwin James. James will be out for at least half the season after a productive rookie season. While Melvin Gordon contract holdout continues; Rivers, Keenan Allen, and their RB by committee must fill in the gaps this season.

Colts hang around, Rivers and Chargers pull away...
Give me the over (44.5)
COLTS 24 CHARGERS 31



Cincinnati @ Seattle (-9.5) (44)
The Bengals have finally moved on from the Marvin Lewis era while bringing on a rookie head coach. Transition definitely the phrase in the locker room for the Bengals. The continually get become injury prone each season by their vital weapons in the passing game. TJ Boyd stepped up last season as well as the emergence of Joe Mixon. Chris Carson emerged as the workhorse for Seattle as they led the league in rushing a season ago. Adding Clowney helps after Frank Clarke departure. Tyler Lockett moves over to WR1. Seattle always tough at home.

Seahawks run the ball all damn game...
Give me Seattle (-9.5)
BENGALS 16 SEAHAWKS 33



San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (PK) (50.5)
Both teams franchise quarterbacks must answer the call this season. Jimmy G coming off injury has the right coach in his system and a surrounding cast. While Jameis Winston in the final year of his contract is now with Bruce Arians as he looks to help him rebound. Winston cast of weapons are lethal as they were an aerial attack in top 5 in most offensive passing categories. However their secondary and defense was horrific. SF secondary doesn't force turnovers and mediocre at best. High scoring affair in store.

Whoever has the ball last will win...
Give me the over 
49ers 35 BUCS 38



NY Giants @ Dallas (-7) (45)
Ezekiel Elliott locked up now as the highest paid RB. The LB taken care of as well as OL. Now it is time for your QB. Week one Dallas focus is the Giants. Saquan Barkely coming off offensive rookie of the year honors is poised to put up identical or better numbers in 2019. Eli Manning is still the Giants QB but for how long? This Dallas defense is for real. If they can stay healthy, the Cowboys will have something to say come January.

D in Dallas for defense and dominate...
Give me Dallas (-7)
GIANTS 20 COWBOYS 28



Detroit @ Arizona (+2.5) (47)
#1 overall pick QB Kyler Murray for the Cardinals makes his debut versus the Lions come Sunday. Undersized but will he be undervalued. Horrific offensive line but you can see the potential in the quarterback. New head coach and rookie QB last season, enters new head coach and rookie QB this season. No Patrick Peterson for the first four games. A coach with no NFL experience and struggles record wise as a collegiate coach. Detroit amped up the defense and taking away a lot of duties from QB Matt Stafford. Trying to finally establish a run first mentality, Stafford has a replacement at tight end and some weapons out wide. Being consistent is an understatement. Detroit has not made the playoffs since 2016 and this season will be even tougher with the likes of (Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago) in the same division.

First game woes for Murray and the Cards...
LIONS 27 CARDINALS 9



Pittsburgh @ New England (-5.5) (50)
Addition by subtraction for the Steelers. Losing Antonio Brown production on the field sucks for sure but the off the field and locker room fiascos they can surely do without. Now JuJu Smith-Schuster is the teams new #1 receiver. While Big Ben led the league in passing yards last season he was turnover prone all year. James Conner is far from LeVeon Bell; Steelers ranked 31st in rushing in 2018. The defense looking back in form to what we are accustomed to as Mike Tomlin and Ben Rothlisberger know another disappointing season is not Steelers tradition. As tradition continues for the Patriots. Winning is not just a habit but a culture, coming off a precedent 6th Super Bowl; Brady and Belichick are prime for another SB run. New England lost Gronk but regained Josh Gordon so timing will tell how fast he and Brady can get reconnected. We know what Edelman brings to the table while Sony Michel in year 2 will be a catalyst helping out an aging but wise QB. Being said, Pittsburgh needs a signature win and what a way to start the season.

Pats drop banner, Steelers drop Pats...
Give me the Steelers straight up and the over
STEELERS 41 PATRIOTS 40



Houston @ New Orleans (-7) (52.5)
Hopefully the Saints are finally over the no call on the clearly DPI vs the Rams in the NFC Championship game in the Superdome. Drew Brees had an effective season throwing the ball. Led the league in completion percentage the last two seasons. As of late with his running game has not had to throw the ball as much. Also having the luxury of Michael Thomas to throw the ball too isn't too bad either. The defense added some pieces in the front seven to help with a suspect secondary. This is the year for New Orleans to get to the SB. Houston is thinking the same thing. Giving up multiple draft picks and letting go of Jadeveon Clowney. They have added moves to help Deshaun Watson in the passing game. Tunsil protecting his blindside while Carlos Hyde/Duke Johnson at running back and Kenny Stills to the passing game is big moves for a team that is seeking their first postseason win. Nuke Hopkins, Will Fuller back in the mix and healthy to go with Michael Thomas, deep threat Ted Ginn Jr, and now Jared Cook at TE for Brees; this game will be a back and forth up and down game in the dome for the first of a MNF double-header.

Being said, Saints home in the dome. Too much down the stretch
Give me the over
TEXANS 35 SAINTS 38



Denver @ Oakland (PK) (43.5)
Both Denver and Oakland trying to turnaround forgettable 2018 seasons. Denver now with Joe Flacco at quarterback hasn't found as consistent QB at the position since Peyton Manning took them to the Super Bowl in 2015. Philip Lindsey provides a spark at running back but that offensive line still has some issues. No real threat at receiver. While the defense under new head coach Vic Fangio coming over from the Bears will be better than advertised. Bradley Chubb (12) and former SB MVP Von Miller (14.5) sacks will once again cause havoc in the backfield even more under Fangio. Jon Gruden is finding out quickly that its a "hard knock" life dealing with Antonio Brown and his ongoing menstrual cycle episodes. Nothing is fair and nothing is ever good for a man who will make north of $50 million over the next 3 seasons. Derek Carr must continue and so does the Raiders. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs has offensive rookie of the year written all over it. The additions in the draft (Ferrell DE, Abram S) alongside some veteran presence to have that mixture on the roster should hopefully provide a winning culture for the Raiders. However besides this MNF game; both teams will be irrelevant other than the fact the Broncos defense will be legit and the Raiders because their the Raiders; records will show the whole story.

Raiders at home one time for the black hole...
Give me Oakland straight up
DENVER 20 OAKLAND 23

OPENING WEEK 1 POWER RANKINGS

1. PATRIOTS
2. CHIEFS
3. SAINTS
4. RAMS
5. EAGLES
6. COWBOYS
7. CHARGERS
8. PACKERS
9. BEARS
10. VIKINGS

WEEK 1 FANTASY STARTS



QB:

LAMAR JACKSON (BAL) DOLPHINS 29TH OVERALL DEFENSE, 31ST VS RUN. JACKSON (6-2) AS A STARTER. MIX OF RUN/PASS VS REBUILDING TEAM.

DREW BREES (NO) PASS COMP % THROUGH THE ROOF. HOME. MNF. ADDED JARED COOK/LATAVIUS MURRAY AGAINST A BOTTOM TIER PASS DEFENSE.

DESHAUN WATSON (HOU) FINALLY OFFENSIVE LINE HELP. STATS HAVE IMPROVED. AS BAD AS TEXANS DEFENSE IS, SAINTS SECONDARY 29TH VS PASS.

JAMEIS WINSTON/JIMMY GARRAPOLO (TB/SF) SHOOTOUT IN STORE. 49ERS WITH JUST 7 TURNOVERS LAST SEASON ON DEFENSE VS A QB WHO IS PRONE TO GIVE IT AWAY. BUCS SECONDARY HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY BAD. KITTLE/EVANS SHOULD BE IN FOR A DAY FROM THESE 2 QBs.

RB:

CHRIS CARSON (SEA) SEAHAWKS RANKED 1ST VS RUN LAST SEASON. BENGALS DEFENSE RANKED 32ND VS RUN GIVING UP (137.8 YPG) IN 2018.

TONY POLLARD (DAL) DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT HIM BUT KNOW HE WILL GET BULK OF CARRIES WITH ZEKE FINALLY ON THE ROSTER. KNOW THE GIANTS DEFENSE ISN'T THE BEST. A LOT OF CARRIES BEHIND FRESH O-LINE. CHEAP VALUE.

MARK INGRAM (BAL) MIAMI RUN DEFENSE AND OVERALL DEFENSE IS HORRIBLE. BALTIMORE WILL BE COMMITTED TO THE RUN. INGRAM FRESH START BEHIND A RUN FIRST TEAM.

ALVIN KAMARA (NO) KAMARA CAN DO IT ALL AND WILL AS THE SAINTS #1 BACK MOVING FORWARD. LOOK FOR KAMARA TO EXPLOIT THE WEAK HOUSTON SECONDARY AND FIND SPACE IN THE RUN GAME TO EXPOSE THE TEXANS.

WR:

CHRIS GODWIN (TB) GODWIN AVERAGED (15 YPC) LAST SEASON AND GOING OPPOSITE OF MIKE EVANS WILL GET YOU PLENTY OF LOOKS IN A BUCS OFFENSE THAT HAS BEEN PASS FRIENDLY VS A LESS THAN PAR SF SECONDARY.

COOPER KUPP (LAR) GOFF FAVORITE TARGET FRESH OFF ACL SURGERY IS BACK. (506 YARDS/6 TDS/55 REC) IN JUST 8 GAMES FOR KUPP. ABILITY TO GET OPEN IN MULTIPLE PLACES ON THE FIELD.

WILL FULLER V (HOU) SAINTS SECONDARY MORE THAN SUSPECT. MARSHON LATTIMORE SHOULD BE BUSY WITH NUKE ALL GAME LEAVING PLENTY OPPORTUNITIES FOR FULLER IF HEALTHY.

JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER (PIT) YEAH THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE ON JUJU BUT HE HAS PLENTY TALENT ENOUGH TO HANDLE IT. (111 REC/1426 YARDS) THIS WITH AB ON THE OTHER SIDE, NEVERTHELESS HE WILL BE A HANDFUL.

TE:

GREG KITTLE (SF) BEST PASS CATCHER FOR THE NINERS. BUCS SECONDARY HORRIBLE AND GAVE UP THE 5TH MOST PASSING YARDS TO TIGHT ENDS.

EVAN ENGRAM (NYG) WITH A DEPLETED RECEIVING CORE, ENGRAM SHOULD GET PLENTY OF LOOKS VS A GOOD DALLAS DEFENSE. IN 2 GAMES VS THE COWBOYS LAST SEASON, ENGRAM (12 REC/150 YARDS/2 TDs).

DEF:

BALTIMORE
SEATTLE
EAGLES

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