#6 ATLANTA v #1 PHILADELPHIA
SATURDAY JANUARY 13TH – 4:25 PM -
NBC
The Philadelphia Eagles enter
the playoffs with a record of (13-3), NFC East champs, and a #1 seed to go with
home field throughout the playoffs and yet they play the underdog Saturday at
the Linc. The visiting Atlanta Falcons come into this week's divisional game as
a (-3) favorite. Just not too long ago the Eagles, city of Philadelphia, and
fly eagles fly was becoming a fever everywhere, that was until the franchise
quarterback went down. Second year QB and then potential MVP candidate Carson
Wentz (3,296 yards / 33 TDs / 7 INTs) while posting a QBR of (101.9) tore his
ACL. So, in come Nick Foles for another stint with the Eagles. Foles was with
the team from (2012-2014) then led by offensive mind Chip Kelley help get the
Eagles into the postseason. Second year head coach Doug Pederson is an
offensive mind of his own liking. Pederson will have to call a run heavy and
turnover free game to help his QB. Philadelphia traded for RB Jay Ajayi midway
through the season. Ajayi alongside LaGarrette Blount have been splitting loads
for majority of the season but a clear cut at running back needs to be
established before the playoffs. The likes of targets TE Zach Ertz (824 rec
yards) and new acquired and paid WR Alshon Jeffery (9 TDs) led the team in
yards and touchdowns respectively and will need to get open in a feisty Falcons
defense. They are big targets that can stretch the field vertically and turn simple
slant routes in huge gains. Don't sleep on the Eagles front 7 either.
Philadelphia is 1st against the run (79.2). Force some 3 and outs early on the
Falcons to give your team a chance.
First against the run
don't mean anything to the Falcons duo at running back. Devonta Freeman has now
scored a touchdown in his first (4) career playoff games which is a first in
the NFL. Freeman and Tevin Coleman took care of business chomping down (32) run
plays and drained the clock almost 40 minutes long a week ago in LA. That
running attack allowed Rams stud RB Todd Gurley to stay on the sidelines,
however when Gurley was on the field, Atlanta found ways to make other people
beat them. That Falcons defense has come alive of late. Since the Falcons first
matchup versus New Orleans they have only given up (16.3 ppg) while having (10)
sacks and (9) turnovers. All but 1 team were a playoff team during that span
(NO 2x, MINN, LAR, CAR) exception being Tampa Bay. Julio Jones also got in the
mix finding the end zone after a season of barley scoring touchdowns. Jones led
all Falcons receivers with (9 rec / 94 yards / TD). Atlanta has finally seemed to find a rhythm on
offense and Matt Ryan over his last (5) playoff games has thrown the ball well,
70% or better, just one shy of Troy Aikman who has the record with (6)
consecutive playoff games throwing 70% or better. While K Matt Bryant has shown
to be the real “Matty Ice”. Bryant went (4/4 on field goals versus the Rams
including a 54 yarder which he could have made from Santa Clara.
The Falcons defense has
been on a pursuit all season, especially over the past few weeks. The Eagles do
not want to hear it. Their defensive front 7 is one of the best in the NFL. Led
by 3x All Pro Fletcher Cox (5.5), Chris Long (5.0), 14th overall pick Derek
Barnett (5.0), and Brandon Graham (9.5) are some sack monsters up front which helps
on coverage for Malcolm Jenkins and that Eagles secondary. That’s asking a lot
matching up with Julio Jones on one side and Mohammad Sanu on the other to go
with two explosive backs who can get out in space if need be. I believe that
Philly will slow down the running attack but it may revamp Matt Ryan and his
aerial stash of weapons. Philadelphia has 3 running backs which can be a luxury
but a curse in my mind here. Pederson doesn't utilize them correctly. Ajayi
needs to get at least (20) touches in the game, while Blount is my short
yardage and goal line guy while Clement is the pass catcher and receiving back
out of the three. I believe too much Falcons defense in the end and a couple
Foles turnovers will be costly and the difference in this NFC showdown. Matt
Ryan is coming to Philadelphia as a homecoming of sorts, growing up in the area
and playing sports in the city. Ryan picked up his first career playoff road
win at Los Angeles, he will get his second in Philly.
ATLANTA 26 PHILADELPHIA 13
#5
TENNESSEE v #1 NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY
JANUARY 13TH – 8:15 PM - CBS
Titans head coach Mike
Murlarkey may have just saved his job with last week's improbable comeback win
at Arrowhead (22-21) versus the Chiefs. Being down (21-3) at the half,
Tennessee scored (18) unanswered points to become just the 3rd team to go on
the road an overcome an (18) point deficit or more in the playoffs. Marcus
Mariota played like night and day between each half. First half - (7/13 - 81
yards - INT); second half - (12/18 - 114 yards - 2 TDs). Not to mention his 1st
career playoff passing TD going to himself after his pass bounced off Chiefs CB
Darrelle Revis right back to Mariota as he dived to the pylon. That started a
run as that Titans defense lead by legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau
played tougher coverage and was a bit looser in the 2nd half. The Chiefs also abandoned
the run which made it a bit easier disguising blitzes and opening the Titans
offense. Tennessee also exploited that 25th ranked run defense by Kansas City.
Derrick Henry making his first career playoff start ran for (156 rush yards /
TD) as (114) of those yards came in the 2nd half as the Titans methodically
kept running the ball and controlling the clock until they ultimately won the game.
Last Saturday marked the Titans first playoff win since 2003.
New England may be
well rested physically, but mentally and emotionally they may be drained. One
of the most historic franchises for being a standard of winning and from the
front office down, “we” thought life is good. However, reports spurring around
front office collapse, Brady's personal trainer having too much freedom around
the facility, the Jimmy G trade the 49ers, and Brady going above Belichick has
arose some concerns in and around the Patriots organization. Being said, all
parties considering seem to have quiet that chatter and any indication of bad
blood will be seen Saturday if their play is not the New England standards.
Brady at the age of 40 led the league in passing yards with (4,577). Brady has
thrown for at least (300) yards or more in 6 of the last 8 postseason games. At
age 40, Brady looks better than ever. This was 7th (4,000) yard season and
since 2008 and their 9th straight AFC East crown. Additions of WR Brandin Cooks
(7 TDs) and RB Rex Burkhead (8 TDs) have been beneficial in both the passing
and run game for Brady. The Patriots run game is as versatile as it gets. Each
back brings special dynamics to the table whether it's power run, pass
catching, blocking. Dion Lewis has over (1,000) yards from scrimmage and (9)
scores. While Mike Gillislee and SB 51 heroics of James White produce a simple
balance of run/pass to give Brady an arsenal of weapons at his disposure. Patricia
has had a tough time mixing up coverages and placing players in position on the
defensive side all season. Now with that secondary hitting stride you can
ignore they rank at the bottom in pass/run defense. As a unit though, the
Patriots only give up (18.5 ppg) which is 5th in the NFL.
The Titans once again
come in as an underdog, however, I think this bunch enjoys that. Mariota and
company seem to have an "us against the world" swag and they will
need that and more playing in Foxborough. Veteran running back Demarco Murray
will be out of this game as well which means more of the power running of
Derrick Henry will be in store. Eliminate turnovers, limit penalties, win on
1st down so you won't have long 3rd downs, as well as control the clock.
Tennessee ran the ball efficiently down the stretch versus KC. Henry averaged
(3.8 yards) after initial contact in the run game and his dominated rushes were
to the left side behind tackle Taylor Lewan. Something about the Pats, at home
in Foxborough. They just find ways to get it done. Titans defense will be
gassed after being on the field a bit too long and will make some mental
mistakes which you expect from a young team. Especially when Brady age of 40
will be making his (35th) career playoff start compared to Mariota
age 24 appearing in his (2nd) career playoff game, experience definitely
leaning towards the home team in this one. Mariota has the talent to lead and
carry a team on his back as such he did against the Chiefs. However, this is
not the Chiefs, and playing a New England team on the road in January spells
M-I-S-T-A-K-E-S on the part of the Titans this weekend. Patriots W-I-N
NEW ENGLAND 34 TENNESSEE 20
#3
JACKSONVILLE v #2 PITTSBURGH
SUNDAY
JANUARY 14TH – 1:05 PM - CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben
Roethlisberger said he wanted a rematch with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Big
Ben got his wish. The Jags come in off a sluggish (10-3) victory in the wild
card round versus the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers QB once again knows that
Jacksonville will be bringing that top tier defense to a Heinz Field where the
Jags have seen success this season. Ben was picked off a career high – (5)
times in their week 5 matchup that they loss by the score of (30-9). Two of his
five interceptions were returned to the house as the Jaguars looked hungry for
some wins while Pittsburgh seemed to be a shell of themselves. However, since
that loss the Steelers have won 10 of 11 games including an 8-game win streak
upended by New England. This season Big Ben threw for (4,251 yards / 28 TDs /
14 INTs), while RB LeVeon Bell finished 3rd in rushing this season tacking on
his 3rd (1,000) yard season of his career with (1,291 rush yards). Wide
receiver Antonio Brown played in just (14.5) games after injuring his calf in
week 15 against the Patriots, still managed to lead the league in receiving
yards (1,533 rec yards on 101 receptions). Brown's stature may be small in
frame, but his play comes up big each game. Brown has proven to be one of Ben's
most reliable options in offense since entering the league in 2010. However,
the emergence of WR Juju Schuster-smith, and WR Martavius Bryant can take some
pressure off Brown if he is not 100%. The speed on the outside of all the
Steelers receivers makes it tough on any matchup, but teams like Jacksonville
come to play their best when they play the best. Pittsburgh defense is no slouch
either. Over the past two weeks of the regular season they have (13 sacks and 4
turnovers. The Steelers are 7th in scoring defense holding opponents just under
(20) with (19.2 ppg). That bodes well with a Jags team that comes in desperately
looking for an identity on offense.
Cornerback Jalen
Ramsey says his team loves the challenge and have embraced heading back into
Pittsburgh for a second time this season. After Ramsey and that Jags defense traumatized
Roethlisberger for 60 minutes, Jacksonville knows their defense will be a vital
part of their success if they want to move on to the next round. Jacksonville
offense sputtered a measly (10) points last weekend but still got the win. QB
Blake Bortles ran for (88) rush yards compared to his passing yards (87)
becoming the 3rd NFL player to win postseason game with less than (100 pass
yards) - (Mike Vick-04 / Bob Griese-73) being the others. Bortles (88) rushing
yards were the most in a playoff game since Colin Kaepernick in 2013. A lot of
Bortles rushes came in part due to the Bills defense not allowing (1,000-yard
rusher) Leonard Fournette to run for just (21 car and only 57 yards). He
alongside Bortles will need to play a more productive game. Hopefully a healthy
group of wide receivers will help Bortles open up the offense. Only (5) of
Bortles (12) completions last week vs Buffalo went to a wide receiver. Drop
balls and not the most intriguing cast at wideout will make you find other ways
to win a ball game. Jacksonville won their first playoff game in 10 seasons,
team they got that last playoff win against, Ben and the Steelers at Heinz Field
(31-29).
Jacksonville has
proven they can go on the road and win, but can they do it in the postseason
has yet to be seen. Jacksonville dominated the first matchup however they still
managed to give up (371 total yards). Ben forced a lot of balls downfield and
once they got down they abandoned the run. Bell is one of the most dynamic
backs in the league and should be used appropriately. Trust and believe
Steelers OC Todd Haley is coming up with a better game plan this time around. I
believe Bell will be a key factor in dictating what Jacksonville does
defensively as well as the flow of the game. We know Jacksonville leads the
league in sacks and are one of the best at causing turnovers into points but
Pittsburgh needs to expose a 21st ranked run defense. With Antonio Brown
probably not 100%, Haley and Ben will probably not force the issue of passing
especially with an opportunistic secondary. Barry Church and Telvin Smith took
2 to the house in week 5. If it wasn't for the defense the score may have been
just (16-9). Pittsburgh knows those 5 turnovers were key to the Jags victory.
Jacksonville offense is mediocre at best when they are not clicking or getting
the ball in good field position because of their defense. We thought Bortles
performance last week was horrific, he threw for just (95 pass yards) in their
first matchup. Pittsburgh defense ranks in top 10 against the rush/pass. Fournette racked up 181 rush yards but 90 of it came when the game was over in their first matchup. Pittsburgh knows
pressure on Bortles could lead to their own battle for turnovers with CB Joe
Haden back in the line-up the team will be vying for a win especially with eyes
and hearts on LB Ryan Shazzier rooting on his Steelers teammates as the stud
linebacker recovers from back/spinal injury. Limit the turnovers and run LeVeon
and we will be looking forward to a round 2 of Pittsburgh vs New England.
PITTSBURGH 19 JACKSONVILLE 6
#4 NEW ORLEANS v #2 MINNESOTA
SUNDAY JANUARY 14TH – 4:45 - FOX
The Saints come marching into
Minneapolis looking like another Saints team that played the Minnesota Vikings
in 2009. Those Saints were at home in the friendly confines of the Superdome in
New Orleans in route to the franchise's first Super Bowl. Similarities to that
team was defense and running game. New Orleans had 39 takeaways in 2009, 37 (20
INTs / 17 fumbles) this season. That same year Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas
were the duo, we know the dynamic threat in the backfield this year
(Ingram/Kamara). In 2009, the Saints rushed the ball on average (131.6 ypg) in
comparison to 2017 (129.4 ypg). Running ball that well has helped an older Drew
Brees not have to throw the ball at much; attempts in 2009 - (34.3) and 2017 -
(33.6). Last Sunday the Panthers defense calmed down the storm of Ingram/Kamara
forcing Brees to turn back the hands of time a bit (23/33 / 376 yards / 2 TDs /
INT). Brees connected with Ted Ginn Jr on an 80 yard bomb late in the first
quarter which opened things up. Ginn Jr (115) alongside Michael Thomas (8 rec /
131 yards) both racked up over (100) receiving yards. Not the 2017 Saints ways
of winning as the Panthers defense clamped down on New Orleans RB duo and
holding them well under the norm with just (45 rush yards). New Orleans defense
found a way late to hold off a Carolina comeback as the Saints won (31-26).
Fourth year head coach
Mike Zimmer has the Minnesota Vikings back in the playoffs for the 2nd time in
his tenure (2015). Minnesota (13-3) and NFC North champs could find a way to be
to have home field through the Super Bowl if things align accordingly but first
the matter of concern, the New Orleans Saints. The Vikings welcomed in the
Saints week 1 on Monday Night Football with a (29-19) victory. Then
QB Sam Bradford went (27/32 / 346 yards / TDs) versus the Saints. That was a
different Saints defense from then compared to now. Different Vikings team too.
Minnesota led by Case Keenum (3,547 pass yards / 22 TDs / 7 INTs) of all names
has the Vikings offense rolling. Wide receivers Adam Thielen (91 rec / 1,276
yards) and Stefon Diggs (64 rec / 849 yards) have played well all season. The
Vikings drafted RB Dalvin Cook out of FSU who was on pace for a (1,000) yard
season suffered a torn ACL after week 4, that position became a blur. Then
emerged Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. The two-back combo combined for
over (1,300 rush yards / 11 TDs). That helped Minnesota have a 10th ranked
offense at the helm of Case Kennum. The Vikings defense is their bread and
butter. Minnesota held opponents to an NFL best (15.8 ppg), while ranking 2nd
in the pass and 2nd in rush. Minnesota has elite defensive players on each
level; defensive line (Everson Griffin - 13.5 sacks), linebackers (Anthony Barr
- 75 tackles), and secondary (CB Xavier Rhoades / S Harrison Barnes - 7 INTs)
who are either All Pro or first team NFL. They have caused havoc all season
long.
Like in 2009, the
Saints defense up just (21.3 ppg), and in 2017 (20.4 ppg). That will help
the Saints hang around in a hostile US Bank Stadium come Sunday. This time
hopefully no bounty gate on either side as we remember how that played out in
2009 matchup played out. These two physical defenses will be at it all game.
Saints just placed offensive lineman Andrus Peat on IR. That does not bode well
for an aggressive defense such as Minnesota. The Vikings only give up (83.6
rush ypg) so New Orleans will need to mix and match ways of getting
Ingram/Kamara going early and often. Michael Thomas vs Xavier Rhoades will be a
1 on 1 battle all game. While Cameron Jordan on the Saints side of the ball led
the league in batted balls, he will have to bring pressure to throw Keenum off
and give Brees and the Saints multiple chances to score against a rugged
Minnesota front. If the Vikings mix up the run with the pass all game I think
they will find matchups they like in the passing game including at tight end.
Greg Olsen exposed the Saints with (8 catches / 107 yards / TD), look for Kyle
Rudolph to be key in Keenum' s success.
MINNESOTA 27 NEW ORLEANS 23
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