Thursday, January 11, 2018

NFL PLAYOFFS PREVIEW: DIVISIONAL ROUND



#6 ATLANTA v #1 PHILADELPHIA

SATURDAY JANUARY 13TH – 4:25 PM - NBC


The Philadelphia Eagles enter the playoffs with a record of (13-3), NFC East champs, and a #1 seed to go with home field throughout the playoffs and yet they play the underdog Saturday at the Linc. The visiting Atlanta Falcons come into this week's divisional game as a (-3) favorite. Just not too long ago the Eagles, city of Philadelphia, and fly eagles fly was becoming a fever everywhere, that was until the franchise quarterback went down. Second year QB and then potential MVP candidate Carson Wentz (3,296 yards / 33 TDs / 7 INTs) while posting a QBR of (101.9) tore his ACL. So, in come Nick Foles for another stint with the Eagles. Foles was with the team from (2012-2014) then led by offensive mind Chip Kelley help get the Eagles into the postseason. Second year head coach Doug Pederson is an offensive mind of his own liking. Pederson will have to call a run heavy and turnover free game to help his QB. Philadelphia traded for RB Jay Ajayi midway through the season. Ajayi alongside LaGarrette Blount have been splitting loads for majority of the season but a clear cut at running back needs to be established before the playoffs. The likes of targets TE Zach Ertz (824 rec yards) and new acquired and paid WR Alshon Jeffery (9 TDs) led the team in yards and touchdowns respectively and will need to get open in a feisty Falcons defense. They are big targets that can stretch the field vertically and turn simple slant routes in huge gains. Don't sleep on the Eagles front 7 either. Philadelphia is 1st against the run (79.2). Force some 3 and outs early on the Falcons to give your team a chance.

First against the run don't mean anything to the Falcons duo at running back. Devonta Freeman has now scored a touchdown in his first (4) career playoff games which is a first in the NFL. Freeman and Tevin Coleman took care of business chomping down (32) run plays and drained the clock almost 40 minutes long a week ago in LA. That running attack allowed Rams stud RB Todd Gurley to stay on the sidelines, however when Gurley was on the field, Atlanta found ways to make other people beat them. That Falcons defense has come alive of late. Since the Falcons first matchup versus New Orleans they have only given up (16.3 ppg) while having (10) sacks and (9) turnovers. All but 1 team were a playoff team during that span (NO 2x, MINN, LAR, CAR) exception being Tampa Bay. Julio Jones also got in the mix finding the end zone after a season of barley scoring touchdowns. Jones led all Falcons receivers with (9 rec / 94 yards / TD).  Atlanta has finally seemed to find a rhythm on offense and Matt Ryan over his last (5) playoff games has thrown the ball well, 70% or better, just one shy of Troy Aikman who has the record with (6) consecutive playoff games throwing 70% or better. While K Matt Bryant has shown to be the real “Matty Ice”. Bryant went (4/4 on field goals versus the Rams including a 54 yarder which he could have made from Santa Clara.

The Falcons defense has been on a pursuit all season, especially over the past few weeks. The Eagles do not want to hear it. Their defensive front 7 is one of the best in the NFL. Led by 3x All Pro Fletcher Cox (5.5), Chris Long (5.0), 14th overall pick Derek Barnett (5.0), and Brandon Graham (9.5) are some sack monsters up front which helps on coverage for Malcolm Jenkins and that Eagles secondary. That’s asking a lot matching up with Julio Jones on one side and Mohammad Sanu on the other to go with two explosive backs who can get out in space if need be. I believe that Philly will slow down the running attack but it may revamp Matt Ryan and his aerial stash of weapons. Philadelphia has 3 running backs which can be a luxury but a curse in my mind here. Pederson doesn't utilize them correctly. Ajayi needs to get at least (20) touches in the game, while Blount is my short yardage and goal line guy while Clement is the pass catcher and receiving back out of the three. I believe too much Falcons defense in the end and a couple Foles turnovers will be costly and the difference in this NFC showdown. Matt Ryan is coming to Philadelphia as a homecoming of sorts, growing up in the area and playing sports in the city. Ryan picked up his first career playoff road win at Los Angeles, he will get his second in Philly.

ATLANTA 26 PHILADELPHIA 13



#5 TENNESSEE v #1 NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY JANUARY 13TH – 8:15 PM - CBS


Titans head coach Mike Murlarkey may have just saved his job with last week's improbable comeback win at Arrowhead (22-21) versus the Chiefs. Being down (21-3) at the half, Tennessee scored (18) unanswered points to become just the 3rd team to go on the road an overcome an (18) point deficit or more in the playoffs. Marcus Mariota played like night and day between each half. First half - (7/13 - 81 yards - INT); second half - (12/18 - 114 yards - 2 TDs). Not to mention his 1st career playoff passing TD going to himself after his pass bounced off Chiefs CB Darrelle Revis right back to Mariota as he dived to the pylon. That started a run as that Titans defense lead by legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau played tougher coverage and was a bit looser in the 2nd half. The Chiefs also abandoned the run which made it a bit easier disguising blitzes and opening the Titans offense. Tennessee also exploited that 25th ranked run defense by Kansas City. Derrick Henry making his first career playoff start ran for (156 rush yards / TD) as (114) of those yards came in the 2nd half as the Titans methodically kept running the ball and controlling the clock until they ultimately won the game. Last Saturday marked the Titans first playoff win since 2003.

New England may be well rested physically, but mentally and emotionally they may be drained. One of the most historic franchises for being a standard of winning and from the front office down, “we” thought life is good. However, reports spurring around front office collapse, Brady's personal trainer having too much freedom around the facility, the Jimmy G trade the 49ers, and Brady going above Belichick has arose some concerns in and around the Patriots organization. Being said, all parties considering seem to have quiet that chatter and any indication of bad blood will be seen Saturday if their play is not the New England standards. Brady at the age of 40 led the league in passing yards with (4,577). Brady has thrown for at least (300) yards or more in 6 of the last 8 postseason games. At age 40, Brady looks better than ever. This was 7th (4,000) yard season and since 2008 and their 9th straight AFC East crown. Additions of WR Brandin Cooks (7 TDs) and RB Rex Burkhead (8 TDs) have been beneficial in both the passing and run game for Brady. The Patriots run game is as versatile as it gets. Each back brings special dynamics to the table whether it's power run, pass catching, blocking. Dion Lewis has over (1,000) yards from scrimmage and (9) scores. While Mike Gillislee and SB 51 heroics of James White produce a simple balance of run/pass to give Brady an arsenal of weapons at his disposure. Patricia has had a tough time mixing up coverages and placing players in position on the defensive side all season. Now with that secondary hitting stride you can ignore they rank at the bottom in pass/run defense. As a unit though, the Patriots only give up (18.5 ppg) which is 5th in the NFL. 

The Titans once again come in as an underdog, however, I think this bunch enjoys that. Mariota and company seem to have an "us against the world" swag and they will need that and more playing in Foxborough. Veteran running back Demarco Murray will be out of this game as well which means more of the power running of Derrick Henry will be in store. Eliminate turnovers, limit penalties, win on 1st down so you won't have long 3rd downs, as well as control the clock. Tennessee ran the ball efficiently down the stretch versus KC. Henry averaged (3.8 yards) after initial contact in the run game and his dominated rushes were to the left side behind tackle Taylor Lewan. Something about the Pats, at home in Foxborough. They just find ways to get it done. Titans defense will be gassed after being on the field a bit too long and will make some mental mistakes which you expect from a young team. Especially when Brady age of 40 will be making his (35th) career playoff start compared to Mariota age 24 appearing in his (2nd) career playoff game, experience definitely leaning towards the home team in this one. Mariota has the talent to lead and carry a team on his back as such he did against the Chiefs. However, this is not the Chiefs, and playing a New England team on the road in January spells M-I-S-T-A-K-E-S on the part of the Titans this weekend. Patriots W-I-N

NEW ENGLAND 34 TENNESSEE 20



#3 JACKSONVILLE v #2 PITTSBURGH
SUNDAY JANUARY 14TH – 1:05 PM - CBS

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger said he wanted a rematch with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Big Ben got his wish. The Jags come in off a sluggish (10-3) victory in the wild card round versus the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers QB once again knows that Jacksonville will be bringing that top tier defense to a Heinz Field where the Jags have seen success this season. Ben was picked off a career high – (5) times in their week 5 matchup that they loss by the score of (30-9). Two of his five interceptions were returned to the house as the Jaguars looked hungry for some wins while Pittsburgh seemed to be a shell of themselves. However, since that loss the Steelers have won 10 of 11 games including an 8-game win streak upended by New England. This season Big Ben threw for (4,251 yards / 28 TDs / 14 INTs), while RB LeVeon Bell finished 3rd in rushing this season tacking on his 3rd (1,000) yard season of his career with (1,291 rush yards). Wide receiver Antonio Brown played in just (14.5) games after injuring his calf in week 15 against the Patriots, still managed to lead the league in receiving yards (1,533 rec yards on 101 receptions). Brown's stature may be small in frame, but his play comes up big each game. Brown has proven to be one of Ben's most reliable options in offense since entering the league in 2010. However, the emergence of WR Juju Schuster-smith, and WR Martavius Bryant can take some pressure off Brown if he is not 100%. The speed on the outside of all the Steelers receivers makes it tough on any matchup, but teams like Jacksonville come to play their best when they play the best. Pittsburgh defense is no slouch either. Over the past two weeks of the regular season they have (13 sacks and 4 turnovers. The Steelers are 7th in scoring defense holding opponents just under (20) with (19.2 ppg). That bodes well with a Jags team that comes in desperately looking for an identity on offense.

Cornerback Jalen Ramsey says his team loves the challenge and have embraced heading back into Pittsburgh for a second time this season. After Ramsey and that Jags defense traumatized Roethlisberger for 60 minutes, Jacksonville knows their defense will be a vital part of their success if they want to move on to the next round. Jacksonville offense sputtered a measly (10) points last weekend but still got the win. QB Blake Bortles ran for (88) rush yards compared to his passing yards (87) becoming the 3rd NFL player to win postseason game with less than (100 pass yards) - (Mike Vick-04 / Bob Griese-73) being the others. Bortles (88) rushing yards were the most in a playoff game since Colin Kaepernick in 2013. A lot of Bortles rushes came in part due to the Bills defense not allowing (1,000-yard rusher) Leonard Fournette to run for just (21 car and only 57 yards). He alongside Bortles will need to play a more productive game. Hopefully a healthy group of wide receivers will help Bortles open up the offense. Only (5) of Bortles (12) completions last week vs Buffalo went to a wide receiver. Drop balls and not the most intriguing cast at wideout will make you find other ways to win a ball game. Jacksonville won their first playoff game in 10 seasons, team they got that last playoff win against, Ben and the Steelers at Heinz Field (31-29).

Jacksonville has proven they can go on the road and win, but can they do it in the postseason has yet to be seen. Jacksonville dominated the first matchup however they still managed to give up (371 total yards). Ben forced a lot of balls downfield and once they got down they abandoned the run. Bell is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and should be used appropriately. Trust and believe Steelers OC Todd Haley is coming up with a better game plan this time around. I believe Bell will be a key factor in dictating what Jacksonville does defensively as well as the flow of the game. We know Jacksonville leads the league in sacks and are one of the best at causing turnovers into points but Pittsburgh needs to expose a 21st ranked run defense. With Antonio Brown probably not 100%, Haley and Ben will probably not force the issue of passing especially with an opportunistic secondary. Barry Church and Telvin Smith took 2 to the house in week 5. If it wasn't for the defense the score may have been just (16-9). Pittsburgh knows those 5 turnovers were key to the Jags victory. Jacksonville offense is mediocre at best when they are not clicking or getting the ball in good field position because of their defense. We thought Bortles performance last week was horrific, he threw for just (95 pass yards) in their first matchup. Pittsburgh defense ranks in top 10 against the rush/pass. Fournette racked up 181 rush yards but 90 of it came when the game was over in their first matchup. Pittsburgh knows pressure on Bortles could lead to their own battle for turnovers with CB Joe Haden back in the line-up the team will be vying for a win especially with eyes and hearts on LB Ryan Shazzier rooting on his Steelers teammates as the stud linebacker recovers from back/spinal injury. Limit the turnovers and run LeVeon and we will be looking forward to a round 2 of Pittsburgh vs New England.

PITTSBURGH 19 JACKSONVILLE 6



#4 NEW ORLEANS v #2 MINNESOTA

SUNDAY JANUARY 14TH – 4:45 - FOX


The Saints come marching into Minneapolis looking like another Saints team that played the Minnesota Vikings in 2009. Those Saints were at home in the friendly confines of the Superdome in New Orleans in route to the franchise's first Super Bowl. Similarities to that team was defense and running game. New Orleans had 39 takeaways in 2009, 37 (20 INTs / 17 fumbles) this season. That same year Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas were the duo, we know the dynamic threat in the backfield this year (Ingram/Kamara). In 2009, the Saints rushed the ball on average (131.6 ypg) in comparison to 2017 (129.4 ypg). Running ball that well has helped an older Drew Brees not have to throw the ball at much; attempts in 2009 - (34.3) and 2017 - (33.6). Last Sunday the Panthers defense calmed down the storm of Ingram/Kamara forcing Brees to turn back the hands of time a bit (23/33 / 376 yards / 2 TDs / INT). Brees connected with Ted Ginn Jr on an 80 yard bomb late in the first quarter which opened things up. Ginn Jr (115) alongside Michael Thomas (8 rec / 131 yards) both racked up over (100) receiving yards. Not the 2017 Saints ways of winning as the Panthers defense clamped down on New Orleans RB duo and holding them well under the norm with just (45 rush yards). New Orleans defense found a way late to hold off a Carolina comeback as the Saints won (31-26).

Fourth year head coach Mike Zimmer has the Minnesota Vikings back in the playoffs for the 2nd time in his tenure (2015). Minnesota (13-3) and NFC North champs could find a way to be to have home field through the Super Bowl if things align accordingly but first the matter of concern, the New Orleans Saints. The Vikings welcomed in the Saints week 1 on Monday Night Football with a (29-19) victory. Then QB Sam Bradford went (27/32 / 346 yards / TDs) versus the Saints. That was a different Saints defense from then compared to now. Different Vikings team too. Minnesota led by Case Keenum (3,547 pass yards / 22 TDs / 7 INTs) of all names has the Vikings offense rolling. Wide receivers Adam Thielen (91 rec / 1,276 yards) and Stefon Diggs (64 rec / 849 yards) have played well all season. The Vikings drafted RB Dalvin Cook out of FSU who was on pace for a (1,000) yard season suffered a torn ACL after week 4, that position became a blur. Then emerged Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. The two-back combo combined for over (1,300 rush yards / 11 TDs). That helped Minnesota have a 10th ranked offense at the helm of Case Kennum. The Vikings defense is their bread and butter. Minnesota held opponents to an NFL best (15.8 ppg), while ranking 2nd in the pass and 2nd in rush. Minnesota has elite defensive players on each level; defensive line (Everson Griffin - 13.5 sacks), linebackers (Anthony Barr - 75 tackles), and secondary (CB Xavier Rhoades / S Harrison Barnes - 7 INTs) who are either All Pro or first team NFL. They have caused havoc all season long.

Like in 2009, the Saints defense up just (21.3 ppg), and in 2017 (20.4 ppg). That will help the Saints hang around in a hostile US Bank Stadium come Sunday. This time hopefully no bounty gate on either side as we remember how that played out in 2009 matchup played out. These two physical defenses will be at it all game. Saints just placed offensive lineman Andrus Peat on IR. That does not bode well for an aggressive defense such as Minnesota. The Vikings only give up (83.6 rush ypg) so New Orleans will need to mix and match ways of getting Ingram/Kamara going early and often. Michael Thomas vs Xavier Rhoades will be a 1 on 1 battle all game. While Cameron Jordan on the Saints side of the ball led the league in batted balls, he will have to bring pressure to throw Keenum off and give Brees and the Saints multiple chances to score against a rugged Minnesota front. If the Vikings mix up the run with the pass all game I think they will find matchups they like in the passing game including at tight end. Greg Olsen exposed the Saints with (8 catches / 107 yards / TD), look for Kyle Rudolph to be key in Keenum' s success.

MINNESOTA 27 NEW ORLEANS 23





No comments:

Post a Comment