WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS: FIRST ROUND
1 GOLDEN STATE v 8 PORTLAND
SEASON SERIES: GSW
4-0
The
Golden State Warriors come in once again as one of the hottest teams in the NBA
heading into the postseason. A 3rd straight (60+) win season to go
along with a 3 consecutive Pacific Division titles, GSW is here to
stay. Winners of (14) straight until a recent loss to the Jazz, the Warriors
have not missed a beat since losing Kevin Durant on March 1st.
Durant suffered a grade 2 MCL sprain and the Warriors started off (2-4) in his
absence then finishing (13-0) thereafter. Then steam rolled a season high (14)
straight victories largely due in part to their defense and finding stride
behind the arc again. Holding opponents under (100 ppg) while shooting (42%)
from three will help your cause. Now the Warriors hold the #1 seed again in the
West and all roads run through Oracle Arena. As well as GSW plays at home, they
went (31-10) on the road and not since the Bulls in the mid-90s has a team won
(30) road games in back to back seasons.
CURRY – (25.4 PPG)
(6.6 APG)
DURANT – (25.0 PPG)
(8.3 RPG) (4.8 APG)
THOMPSON – (22.5 PPG)
The
Portland Trailblazers are in the playoffs for a 4th consecutive time.
Once again, they are led by perennial point guard Damian Lillard and the
one-two punch of he and CJ McCollum will need to play exceptionally high with
Warriors on the slate next. Portland has won four of the last five games and
enter the playoffs (7th) in scoring with (108 ppg) and (7th)
in 3-PT shooting which will be vital versus a team like the Warriors. The play
of Allen Crabbe who is in the running for 6th Man of the Year (10.7
ppg / shooting (46%) FG, (44%) 3-PT) alongside their ability to be consistent
on the glass helps them tremendously. Even said with their new pickup in big
man Jusuf Nurkic going down with a fibula fracture, we have yet to see what
this team can do against the Warriors with Nurkic on the floor.
LILLARD – (27.0 PPG)
(5.9 APG) (4.9 RPG)
MCCOLLUM – (23.0 PPG)
(3.6 APG) (48% FG)
NURKIC – (15.2 PPG)
(10.4 RPG)
Nurkic
being able to play and at least at close to near (100%) will determine Portland’s
success this postseason. Yes, we all know Dame Lillard is the catalysts behind
the team especially after his (59) points and (0) turnovers explosion last
Saturday, but Nurkic brings intensity on the defensive end and is hard to match
for most teams they face. He is averaging (15.2 ppg) and (10.4 rpg) since
arriving in Rip City. Which is up by more than (7) points and (5) boards
respectively. As well as he is averaging almost (30 mins) a game with Portland.
Also, Portland’s defensive rating has been cut in half from (26th)
to (13th) since the arrival of the Bosnian. Not he alone will be
able to slow down Golden State. The Warriors swept Portland this season by an average
of (19.5) points per game. GSW has scored (100) points in all four matchups as
well as scored at least (120 ppg) on the Blazers (8) times over the past two seasons.
This includes a (45) point stomping earlier this year. Remember the Warriors
beat Portland (4) games to (1) in last year’s playoffs and are (11-2) vs
Portland dating back to (2015-16) and winners of (6) straight. With the
addition of Durant who has put up (30+) on them this season, I believe this
series will be over before it gets officially started.
PREDICTION: GSW in 4
2 SAN ANTONIO v 7 MEMPHIS
SEASON SERIES: TIED
2-2
Head coach
Gregg Popovich has won (60) games in back to back seasons for the first time in
his career. Surprisingly with a man with so much success in two decades on the
Spurs sidelines that this is the first time for this accomplishment. It goes to
show you the body of work he produces on the floor is undeniable no matter the
records. Pop brings in this year’s playoffs without future Hall of Famer Tim Duncan
on the hardwoods for the first time since 1997. San Antonio still has the likes
of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli, but Kawhi Leonard is arguably the face of the
franchise. Yes, Leonard is the 2 – time defending Defensive Player of the Year
and could easily win his 3rd straight this season, it is his offense
that has many in the NBA on the edge of their seat this year. Kawhi has went
from that (7.9 ppg – (2011-12)) to (25.7 ppg) and leading the charge for the
Spurs. Complimenting Kawhi with LaMarcus Aldridge and now Pau Gasol to go with
some aging but still good vets mixed in with some aspiring youth, San Antonio
is poised for another deep postseason run.
LEONARD – (25.7 PPG)
(5.8 RPG) (3.5 APG)
ALDRIDGE – (17.3 PPG)
(7.3 RPG)
GASOL – (12.4 PPG)
(7.8 RPG) (50% FG) (53% 3-PT)
The postseason
is where the Memphis Grizzlies have resided for the past few years, the past
(7) seasons to be exact. Just getting over that hump has been Memphis problem.
New head coach David Fizdale hopes to bring his pedigree of championships
working under Erik Spoelstra in Miami to the Grit and Grind group. However, a
slur of injuries to Chandler Parsons, Mike Conley, Tony Allen, and Marc Gasol
has led Fizdale into experimenting with several lineups this season. Conley has
missed a bulk of time and a recent eye injury is close to where he injured his
face a season ago and Allen with a recent lower leg injury could once again
hinder the Grizzlies postseason run. This core 4 of Conley, Gasol, Randolph,
and Allen has been together throughout this run since 2010 and defense is what
they have predicated on. Ranking 3rd in (FG%) defense and 5th
in overall scoring defense has been their foundation. As of March 1st,
they (7-13) and ranking in the bottom half of defensive rating is concerning.
CONLEY – (20.5 PPG)
(6.4 APG)
GASOL – (19.8 PPG)
(6.2 RPG)
RANDOLPH – (14.2 PPG)
Being said
Memphis has played San Antonio good this season splitting the series (2-2). All
their games have been defensive minded low scoring affairs. Both teams have
taken care of business on their home courts but prior history is not on the
Grizzlies side. Last playoff series win versus San Antonio came back in 2011.
Last season a sweep by the Spurs including a (68 point) game low for Memphis
and (4) losses by an average of (21.5 ppg). I think both benches counter each
other out. I like Patty Mills getting extended time over an aging and slower
Tony Parker but Mills is not the best defender. Jamychel Green has played well
this season for Memphis and is a versatile big with great isolation defense in the
paint. P. Gasol comes off the bench now after some mid-season adjustments Pop
made. Pau has played much better off the bench and his hot shooting from behind
the arc spaces the floor more for Kawhi and company to get to the basket.
Rebounding is key for Memphis but which lineups will Fizdale select to go with.
Ideal is M. Gasol/Randolph however, M. Gasol/Green play better on both sides of
the ball. Memphis won’t get swept but they won’t get past San Antonio once
again.
PREDICTION: SPURS IN
6
3 HOUSTON v 6 OKLAHOMA
CITY
SEASON SERIES:
HOUSTON 2-1
Mike D’antoni
has placed his shoot first and ask questions later approach to Houston and it
could not have come at a better time. His up-tempo offense has help elevated
James Harden game even more this season. Alongside newly acquisitions of sharp
shooters in Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson to compliment Harden, the Rockets
have been on a tear this season. Houston ranks 2nd in points (115
ppg) and with all these wing players, point/shooting guard Harden led the league
in assist with (11.2) and as a team the Rockets are 4th in the
association. The departure of Dwight Howard open the doors for Clint Capela to
take his leap at center and trading for Lou Williams before the trade-deadline
just made the Rockets even deadlier offense attack. Not to mention they shoot
the 3-ball at such a high level they surpassed Golden State’s record of (1,077)
made 3-point shots in a season as well as averaging (14.4) made three-pointers
a game with Harden, Gordon, and Anderson all in the top -10 in three-pointers
made in a season.
HARDEN – (29.1 PPG)
(11.2 APG) (8.1 RPG)
WILLAMS – (17.7 PPG)
GORDON – (16.3 PPG)
If
someone carried a team on their back this season, no one did it as well and as
exciting as Russell Westbrook. The human highlight that he was lit up the record
books by breaking Oscar Robertson’s 55-year-old record of (41) with (42)
triple-doubles in a season. This included several (50 point) games in this
triple-double feat. OKC surely benefited off Westbrook’s performances going
(33-9) in games which he recorded a triple-double. With Kevin Durant leaving
for the Warriors, Oklahoma City only loss (8) more games than a season ago. Even
said, Westbrook cannot do it all by himself. Victor Oladipo will need to step his
game up to new heights to assist his running mate on both sides of the floor. This
will be Oladipo’s first stint at a postseason sighting. The combo of Steven
Adams and Enes Kanter will also need to deliver especially on the glass and
controlling the tempo defensively to slow down Houston’s dynamic attack on
offense.
WESTBROOK – (31.8 PPG)
(10.7 RPG) (10.4 APG)
OLADIPO – (16.2 PPG)
(4.3 RPG)
ADAMS – (11.4 PPG)
(7.6 RPG)
This matchup
involves two of the elite scoring performers we have seen this season. Westbrook
has averaged (35p/9a/9r) in four meetings versus the Rockets. While Harden has
posted (20.5p/12a/7r) as Houston won the series matchup (3-1). These two also
average over (55 ppg) for their teams combined points and assisted on, the
highest for two players since the (72-73) seasons. However, as well as both has
played offensively, their turnover margin average around (5.5) per 100 possessions
which is not good is the top 10 of turnovers per possession. To go with Houston
is not the best at defense while the lack of bench play Russ will have to deal
with, it will come down to their elite scorers making huge plays down the
stretch of games. The inside game with Adams and Capela will be interesting. As
they are both two young talented big men who rebound well and can pass the ball
well out of tough situations. Both Adams and Capela work well out of pick and
roll scenarios with Russ and Harden respectively. Enes Kanter and Lou Williams
are basically the 6th men for both teams and their production coming
off the bench with their 2nd units will be key in keeping momentum
and tempo for their teams. Not to mention the pesky defense of Patrick Beverly guarding
Russell Westbrook as we know some of the bad blood they have had over the years
will continue. Overall the lack of depth for OKC will hinder them down the
stretch even though this series could go the distance.
PREDICTIONS: HOUSTON
IN 7
4 LA CLIPPERS v 5 UTAH
SEASON SERIES: LAC
3-1
The Los
Angeles Clippers started the season (13-2) and finished the season (11-2) and
in between these times went (27-27). In between Chris Paul missing (21) and
Blake Griffin going down, the Clippers managed to win at least (50) games for a
4th straight season. The same ole tune is played in Staples Centre
every year around this time and that is the success of the regular season doesn’t
transfer to the postseason for the Clippers. Head coach Doc Rivers is now
(14-18) in the playoffs with Los Angeles and have yet to help LAC get past the
second round. Remember last season’s debacle where Portland came back and won
(4-2) in the first round? Or the year before when the Rockets came back to take
the Clippers (4-3) after Los Angeles had a controlling 3 games to 1 lead in the
West semis? I am sure Clippers fans have not forgot. Through the midst of it
all a huge free agency summer approaches with a lot of money to be spent but on
who? Blake Griffin, CP3, and JJ Redick all become unrestricted free agents at
the end of the season. With lingering injuries to Griffin (knee) hasn’t played
a full season in 2 years and Paul (thumb) most believe Paul will return but how
to keep Griffin as well looms in Cali.
PAUL – (18.1 PPG) (9.3
APG) (4.9 RPG)
GRIFFIN – (21.8 PPG)
(8.1 RPG) (5.0 APG)
JORDAN – (12.6 PPG)
(13.7 RPG)
The Utah
Jazz have been quite the story coming out of the Western Conference. The Jazz
are in the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Head coach Quin Snyder in
his second season led Utah to an (11) win improvement from a season ago. Their
(51) wins had a lot to do with the continuous development of swingman Gordon
Hayward. Hayward has trended upward each year he has been in the league. Gordon
became the first Jazz All-Star since Deron Williams (2011). Hayward has been on
the injury report a few to many times this season as well. He alongside George
Hill, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors have missed almost a complete season of games
total between them. A strong and deep bench has helped the Jazz. The likes of Joe
Johnson, Joe Ingles and Shelvin Mack as well as Boris Diaw have been blessings
in disguise for Utah. Their play this season and added minutes will be a
valuable key for them heading into the playoffs. Ingles has the 3rd
best shooting percentage from three, while Mack ball handling skills is formidable
for a reserve. We all know Joe Johnson can become clutch at any moment and
veteran leadership of Boris Diaw helps this team on and off the court. The
biggest surprise would be their center Rudy Gobert. His points, rebounds, blocks,
an FG % have all went up over a season ago.
HAYWARD – (22.0 PPG)
(5.4 RPG) (3.5 APG)
GOBERT – (14.1 PPG)
(12.8 RPG) (66% FG)
HILL – (17.0 PPG) (4.1
APG)
With
Gobert’s size it will be a battle in the paint between he and the Clippers
DeAndre Jordan. Both players are top (3) in blocks and rebounds per game in the
NBA. Gobert is better offensively as he is a bit more versatile and has better
footwork then Jordan. Jordan has played well defensively this season though as
this is a matchup to watch. I like Gordon Hayward if healthy to have his way against
Los Angeles perimeter players. A key missing link is Austin Rivers. Rivers
suffered a hamstring injury a few weeks back but was averaging (20 ppg) versus
the Jazz this season. LAC will miss his minutes and play on the floor as a lack
of depth could hurt them. Utah can go to a (8-10) man rotation when healthy.
Jamal Crawford and company off the bench for the Clippers are streaky and can
be hit or miss on any given night. Blake Griffin and CP3 should fare well as
George Hill and Derrick Favors have had problems staying on the court all
season and anyone playing Paul is in trouble except for Stephen Curry of late.
Utah ranks 1st in the NBA in point allowed with just (96.5 ppg).
However, rank in the bottom half offensively. JJ Redick curling off screens
will be a problem with the inconsistent play at the 2 guard for Utah. Also in two
of their three losses, Utah’s Hayward and Hill their prime offensive players
went (9/23) and (4/23) another game and that not will get it done no matter who
you playing.
PREDICTION: LAC IN 7
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