EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND PREVIEW

The 82 regular season games have taken place, all 30 teams played for an opportunity and as usual, there are 16 teams remaining, 8 in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference with an opportunity to win 16 games and hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy as the NBA Champions of the 2013-2014 season. In my first round NBA playoff preview, we look at the East, a conference dominated by Indiana and Miami for the majority of the season has a cast of newcomers and young players ready to crash the party. The defending champs Miami Heat along with the usual playoff members of late, the Indiana Pacers, Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets and the Atlanta Hawks are back.  Joining them are newcomers in the Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Bobcats, and the Washington Wizards rose from teams battling in the lottery each spring for the NBA Draft to contending for a conference crown.  Toronto won their first Atlantic Division crown since 2007, Charlotte has made the playoffs for the second time in their short stint as the Bobcats, while John Wall promised the Wizards would make the playoffs and here they are.  We all know the field is trying to stand the Heat as Miami goes for a three-peat and a NBA Finals berth for an unprecedented fourth straight year.






#1 Indiana Pacers (56-26) vs #8 Atlanta Hawks (38-44)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images Sport

Many NBA fans may say without Al Horford the Hawks would have no shot against Indiana but put on your brakes.  First year head coach Mike Budenholzer, a product of Gregg Popovich, has a scrappy and determined group of Hawks feeling confident in their chances of an upset. Tested for the final playoff spot, Atlanta held off New York winning 3 of 4 and securing their 7th straight playoff appearance, which is the second longest streak in the NBA behind the San Antonio Spurs.  Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague's play will be key in this series if Atlanta is going to advance. Jeff Teague will have to keep the Hawks under control and limit turnovers against a pretty solid Pacers defense. In Hawks wins, they average only surrendering (14.9) turnovers; however, in their losses, they surrender around (21.2) turnovers per game, which is alarming. Another key factor is the play of reserve center Pero Antic. Antic, the 31 year old rookie center, posted double digits (16 in their win at home and 18 in the victory two weeks ago in Indiana) because Antic is a solid outside threat, which gives him an advantage to use against Hibbert.  Tension between a once favorite to take down the Miami Heat is still apparent but is starting to calm down.  The Pacers manage to maintain the top spot in the East but their locker room problems is becoming a bigger concern. Paul George went from Superstar to just a star while Lance Stephenson is on a milk carton. Indiana, whom at one point owned the NBA’s best record, had a (11-13) record to finish the year and the poor play of center Roy Hibbert is concern, but head coach Frank Vogel remains optimistic of the Pacers chances.  Another critical piece in the Pacers starting lineup to beating Atlanta is forward David West. In both victories, West posted 17 points in the win at home and a game high 22 points in their win at Atlanta. Although the Hawks have given the Pacers a run for their money this season, I am confident Indiana will respond by winning the series, at least this series. Although they split the regular season match-ups (2-2), Indiana has bigger goals ahead, while the Hawks are rebuilding.  

IND wins series (4-2)

#2 Miami Heat (54-28) vs #7 Charlotte Bobcats (43-39)

 

Kent Smith/NBAE/Getty Images

As the 2013-14 NBA season started to wear down, the Miami Heat had analysts, fans, and many people alike thinking they were on a decline. However, it’s the Heat and until the Big 3 are no longer in South Beach, there is no decline.  Injuries have hindered the Heat and that's been the Achilles heel for them most the season.  Concerns start with Dwayne Wade's health as Wade has missed stretches of games all year but the play of James and Bosh has helped Miami greatly. As the Miami Heat gears up for yet another run at a NBA title, they’ll need all three members clicking or they could fall short of the ultimate goal of a three-peat.  Charlotte has the "Queen City" alive as the Bobcats are in the playoffs for the second time in franchise history.  The major contribution for the Bobcats success is the addition of Al Jefferson to the Charlotte lineup during the summer and the former Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz center has delivered one of his best seasons in his career.  Jefferson averaged (21.8) points and (10.8) rebounds and can dominate a small Miami front court. Although the Bobcats were swept by Miami in the regular season, there are some advantages that could result in them winning their very first playoff game as a franchise. Kemba Walker is a mis-match for Miami’s average point guards Mario Chalmers, and Norris Cole.  Walker may run circles around the Heat for at least one home game but not the entire series. Miami is 15-0 against Charlotte since James and Chris Bosh joined Dwayne Wade in South Beach during the summer of 2010. Miami's advantages were especially evident during their last matchup on March 3, when James single-handedly trounced Charlotte by scoring a career-high 61 points. The Bobcats couldn't defend the perimeter enough to give themselves a chance, allowing the Heat to shoot 57 percent from downtown. Charlotte also had trouble keeping up with Miami's quickness in transition and with Bosh coming out the paint and spreading the floor, Al Jefferson could find himself in a mismatch of his own on the defensive end. Miami ended the regular season losing three straight but when you have LBJ aka LeBron James on your team, well the verdict is in.  

MIA wins series (4-1)

#3 Toronto Raptors (48-34) vs Brooklyn Nets (44-38)



Timothy A. Clark/Getty Images

Tanking?  You really think the same coach that "accidentally" spilled water on the court for an extra timeout would tank? Yes. Jason Kidd clearly sat his players for the final two games of the regular season to avoid a first round matchup with the Chicago Bulls.  Jason Kidd also has clearly resurrected the Nets season after a (10-21) start, the calendar flipped to 2014 and they have been (34-17) since, which was the second best winning percentage in the Eastern Conference during that span.  The small lineup due to Brook Lopez's injury has excelled Brooklyn's guard play with Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston while Paul Pierce has moved to the four spot, a position that is not his traditional role on the court. Placing Pierce at that position is tough for many opposing teams to guard because their new small-ball offense have allowed their players to succeed.  Do not tread on the Raptors easy, because all they did was win the Atlantic division and propelled to a #3 seed in the Eastern playoffs.  Toronto also won a franchise record (48) games and clinched home court in the first round.  General Manager Masai Ujiri in his first year as GM, traded All-Star Rudy Gay after 18 games and Toronto has improved much since they traded Gay and others to Sacramento. DeMar DeRozan has emerged as a star earning his first All-Star ticket this year.  DeRozan alongside Kyle Lowry has changed the culture at the Air Canada Centre and has been the main contributors to the success of Toronto. Also, the Raptors is one of the best teams around the league when it comes to limiting turnovers as they were 10th in turnover percentage. Jonas Valanciunas can control the boards, and his late-season surge (18 points and 11.7 rebounds per game in April) suggests that he could be a scoring factor down low, too. Toronto and Brooklyn met four times, and while each team took two games, three of the four were decided by four points or fewer.  Although, they have played a tremendous season, I believe the veteran experience from Brooklyn will earn them an edge.

 BKN wins series (4-2)

 #4 Chicago Bulls (48-34) vs #5 Washington Wizards (44-38)

 

Ned Dishman/NBAE/Getty Images

Derrick Rose and Luol Deng are not playing for Chicago and yet they still enter the playoffs just two games shy of a (50) win season, and you have to admire their coaching.  Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau continues to keep the Bulls in contention and improving even without their franchise player Derrick Rose. Joakim Noah has improved his game every year and off-season workouts with Kareem Abdul Jabbar has paid off.  The one time Florida Gator averaged career highs in points (12.6), rebounds (11.3) and assists (5.4).  Taj Gibson, Mike Dunleavy, and Kirk Hinrich have the Bulls as one scary opponent this postseason and you see why Brooklyn tried to avoid them. Chicago enters the playoff as one of the top defensive squads in the NBA and Noah’s ability to get all of the Bulls players involved makes them a tough opponent to encounter. Also, the play of D.J. Augustin, who was acquired by Chicago after being waived from Toronto, has provided the Bulls with a boost without the services of one Derrick Rose. However, don't tell that to John Wall who promised a playoff berth for his Wizards and climbed from 7th to 5th in the East in the final two weeks of the regular season. Washington has of the best young backcourts in the league when you add Bradley Beal with Trevor Ariza to the equation and their front court with NeNe and Gortat could pose as a threat. The Wizards have depth at every position on the court and collaborate that with a mix of young and veteran players, Washington could make it interesting versus the Bulls.  Once again, this series comes down to coaching and Chicago is ranked #1 in total team defense due to coach Thibs philosophy.  John Wall averages (19.3) points as well as (8.8) assist per game.  Those assist will be critical as ball movement between him and his teammates will matter as the Wizards will need more than Wall to beat a disciplined and defensive minded Bulls team.  This series will be a case of nights when Chicago will look like a legitimate threat to Miami and other nights when Thibodeau's bunch looks like it doesn't belong in the playoffs, largely because of its offense. This is what also makes the Wizards such an intriguing match-up because we’ve seen the same thing at times from this team throughout the season.  Home court, stability at coaching, and experience in the playoffs and you would think I would take the Chicago Bulls, however; I don't believe they will have enough fire power to go with what Washington brings to the table. Smelling an upset. 
WASH wins series (4-3)